Today, scientists from the US and China collaborate more frequently than scientists between any other country pair aside from the US and EU. But as growing antiglobalist policies increase the salience of scientific autonomy, new research traces how those collaborations have evolved to date, and where they might go next.

Published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a new study by James Evans (Faculty Co-Director of Novel Intelligence; Max Palevsky Professor of Sociology & Data Science; and Director of the Knowledge Lab) and colleagues Renli Wu and Christopher Esposito analyzed nearly 6 million scientific publications involving international collaboration. They found that Chinese scientists’ share of leadership positions in US-China collaborations grew from 30% in 2010 to 45% in 2023.

Using machine learning, the researchers looked ahead to examine how the landscape might evolve under the current trajectory. Their models predicted parity between 2027 and 2028 if trends continue. The team also examined leadership dynamics across 11 technology areas identified as critical by the National Science Foundation. China is expected to achieve parity with the US in 8 of these fields—including AI, semiconductors, and advanced communications—before 2030.

How might that landscape shift in the evolving global policy environment? The group compared three future scenarios: no change in collaboration, partial reduction, or complete “decoupling.” Their findings suggest the complete decoupling scenario would actually increase China’s global scientific leadership, as Chinese scientists would likely shift to partnerships with other regions where they’re more likely to hold leadership positions based on past collaboration patterns (such as the UK). Shifting away from collaborations with the US would also increase China’s domestic scientific collaboration, with consequences that are harder to predict.

The research also documents China’s investments in building global scientific networks: China’s Ministry of Education budgeted $4.59 billion between 2012 and 2025 to support international graduate students in China. These students increasingly come from countries in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, particularly from South Asia and Africa.

The paper notes that US-China collaborations, particularly in AI, are more likely to be successful and impactful than work by either country alone. As policymakers navigate changing dynamics and sentiments, this research suggests that efforts to isolate either country’s science would come at significant cost to both–and to the rest of the world.

Read the full paper in PNAS.