This project develops a data-driven framework to quantify and forecast nursing workload at the encounter and unit levels. Using pre-admission demographic and historical utilization features, we modeled encounter length of stay and workload intensity, and evaluated the impact of a cluster-based complexity indicator. While predictive accuracy remained stable, the clustering feature improved interpretability and revealed meaningful variation in care intensity across medical services. Time-series forecasting further enabled short-horizon census predictions to support proactive staffing. Overall, this framework provides operationally actionable insight for workforce planning under the TVOW initiative.
Watch the team present this project at 01:31:11 in the session recording here.
Keywords: workforce planning, nursing workload, encounter-level forecasting, electronic health records, clustering, length of stay prediction, time-series forecasting, hospital operations, TVOW framework
Faculty Advisor
Over more than 30 years, Don has served in a variety of assignments that utilize research and data analysis to provide impact to major CPG, Retail and Foodservice companies. Don currently serves Associate Clinical Professor at the University of Chicago. Previously Don served as Board President of Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association and as Program Director of the MS, Business Analytics program at DePaul University. As Senior VP, Analytics for HAVI Group, Don helped pioneer new analytics implementations for McDonald’s and Coca-Cola. Prior to joining HAVI Group, Don was Director of Advertising Analytics for Sears, Roebuck & Co. – bringing cutting edge analytics of Sears’ media (tv, radio, print) support to drive ROI based decision making. Don has also managed research and analytics for several major brands for Kraft Foods and site location analytics and modeling for Hallmark Cards.
Don was also an active duty U.S. Army officer for 11 years – serving in troop leadership positions in South Korea, Germany and the U.S. Don graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point with a BS in Engineering. Additionally, he has an MSE in Operations Research from The University of Texas at Austin and MBA from the University of Kansas.